Hurricane Gustav...

Gustav hit the south western coast of Haiti earlier this afternoon as a Cat-1 hurricane (90mph)...  The speed of has slowed to NW at 7mph, and looking at satellite imagery and how the hurricane has slowed the turn to the west is beginning...  Gustav has weakened to 75mph and could weaken a little bit more as it continues to interact with land from Haiti and eastern Cuba...  Model guidance has begun to diverge as Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico...  There is no question in my mind that Gustav gets into the Gulf, but from there the track is tough...  Will the ridge build in strong and push Gustav towards Texas or will a trough weaken the ridge enough to pull Gustav towards the northern Gulf coast...  You can argue either way so lets look at the models and try to get an idea how everything is coming together!

The European has Gustav striking near the Corpus Christie region next Tuesday September 2nd...  For a global model the European shows a very healthy storm hitting Texas...  Obviously the European is going with a stronger ridge....  I will say that the 12z euro has moved Gustav way north where last nights 0z had it hitting northern Mexico...  So the trend is right with the euro...  Right now this is more in line with what I'm thinking...  You can see the trough that could pick up Gustav in the north east and Mid-Atlantic region...  This matches up perfectly with the teleconnections from last week...  It's actually so close it's scary...

The Canadian has a much weaker Gustav heading towards the northern mexico coast...  But look to the east!!!  WOW!!!  I don't know if that's going to happen but we are entering an upswing in tropical activity that will remind people of 04/05...  That doesn't mean we will get the same landfall impact (WE MAY NEVER), but it does mean there is a big threat out there with so much activity...  All it takes is one as 1992 showed us...  We had only 6 names storms that year but unfortunately one was named ANDREW, and we all know how that turned out!

The GFS is showing Gustav way right heading into the Florida Panhandle...  This would be in line with the common right bias/error of the GFS...  Personally I think this is going to be too far right...  Not to say it's impossible but I do think we will see a right bias here...  

NOGAPS is showing a track solution close to the GFS for Gustav...  Again for a global model, NOGAPS is showing a powerful hurricane striking the Panhandle of Florida Monday night...  Again like the GFS I'm not going to say that's impossible but I do think it's too far right...

The GFDL, or in this case, Gas 7 dollars a gallon model is showing BAD news for the US economy...  That's a strong Cat-4 heading straight for Houston, TX next Monday night...  I'll I have to say is I sure hope and pray that doesn't happen...  Unfortunately I think this is very possible and kind of scares me that the GFDL is picking up on this...  This would be DEVASTATING!!!

The HWRF has a healthy storm in the central Gulf...  If you look at the general track the HWRF has it's not good for the US economy...  The track takes it towards eastern Texas and western Louisiana...  Such an oil rich area of our country and another 7 dollar a gallon track...  Again I hope and pray this doesn't happen even though this is very possible!

So what does this all mean?  Well this morning the models were cluster shocking well, now as expected we are starting to see some divergence....  The GFS and NOGAPS takes Gustav into the Florida Panhandle...  The European and the Canadian take Gustav into Southern Texas/Northern Mexico...  And the GFDL and HWRF take Gustav into the Houston, TX area...  All are possible but I'm leaning more west at this point...  I do think the ridge will build in much stronger than the GFS/NOGAPS shows...  Not to say the trough won't create a weakness but I don't think it will be enough to cause such a hard right turn into the Panhandle of Florida...  Plus again referring to the teleconnections from last weak I don't think the trough will dig in much past the Mid-Atlantic states...  I'm worried the trough does create enough of a weakness to pull Gustav north enough that Houston becomes a problem area...  Personally I'm still leaning a little more west but I do think the Houston area should watch this Hurricane very very closely...  As I speak the new 0z early track guidance shows an ominous path for Louisiana and eastern Texas...  Unfortunately this is very possible and would be very bad news for our economy...  I really think 6 dollars if not 7 dollars a gallon is very reasonable for a short time with this type of track into the northern Gulf...

The bottom line is Gustav is going to be a monster...  I don't think it really matters where it hits in the Gulf because I truly believe a Cat-3 at landfall is almost immanent...  Especially when you consider the fact that it will have little to no dry air or shear once it enters the Gulf...  I will say that there is a big difference whether Gustav goes towards Texas like I believe and whether it goes towards the Panhandle of Florida like the GFS/NOGAPS thinks...  The image above is showing you where the loop current is and also where other warm eddies are in the Gulf...  These eddies are very warm deep areas of water that have historically caused hurricanes to explode as they travel over them...  Hence Katrina and Rita in 2005...  The more west Gustav goes the more time it will have over these warm deep waters which will not just help Gustav become a monster, but it will help it maintain it's monster status a lot longer...  This would cause a stronger hurricane at landfall...  One that is not weakening at landfall near as much as it would if it hit the Florida Panhandle...  

Why does this matter???  A strengthening storm will mix faster winds aloft down to the surface...  Doug Gillham has always taught us that a strengthening Cat-1 will cause stronger winds at the surface compared to a weakening Cat-2...  Katrina when it hit south Florida is a great example of this...  People in the Miami are were shocked at how strong a Cat-1 could be...  It just goes to show that even if your flight level winds support a Cat-5, unless you get those winds down to the surface it really doesn't matter to the public...  Again it's very important to understand that a strengthening hurricane mixes the faster winds aloft to the surface helping the hurricane reach it's full intensity...  I truly believe Gustav will reach Cat-5 status at some point in the Gulf especially if it takes the harder left track like I expect it to do...  This is not a not a lock but I think it's very possible...  

The image above shows you this threat...  The waters in the western Gulf near southern Texas/northern Mexico can support a sub 900mb hurricane (Cat-5)...  It also shows that the Gulf can support a Cat-4 hurricane all the way to Mobile, AL...  It even show Cat-3 potential in the Florida Panhandle...  Of course you have to have everything else in the atmosphere lined up perfectly for this to happen, but I think were looking at a major hurricane landfall early next week in the Gulf of Mexico...  Right now I'm thinking a Texas Landfall at Cat-4 strength...  Were about a week away so a lot of thing can happen but I feel pretty go with that forecast...  I do hope I'm wrong though, maybe it will only be a 3...  In closing I would like to thank Justyn Jackson for the last image above...  He just showed my that today and I thought it was really cool/interesting...  You should check out his blog as well if you want to learn some great stuff about weather...  He knows more about severe weather/tornadoes than anybody I know!!!