Tropical Storm Fay is definitely strengthening over land! The pressure is down to 986mb... Here is the pressure over the last 12 hours:11pm: 995mb
2am: 994mb
5am: 989mb (landfall near Cape Romano, south of Naples, FL)
8am: 988mb
11am: 986mb
This is bad news... The fact that Fay has strengthen or land instead of weakened should be a warning that once Fay hits the warm waters of the Atlantic later tonight I really see Fay starting to explode... I'm still sticking with a landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border as a Cat-2... Joe Bastardi from accuweather is calling for a sub 965mb storm.... That would be close to a Cat-3... He has had BY FAR the best handle on this storm since day one so I'm not going to doubt him at all!!!
The NHC has Fay making landfall near Jacksonville, FL... I don't agree with such a hard left turn! Plus since Fay has been making a V-Line towards the SW coast of Florida they have been too far left point after point... I feel strong in saying that Fay will pop out further south and east than the NHC has at this current time... That will make a huge difference in the intensity as well... The NHC has Fay as a 45 knots tropical storm at landfall... That's only 52mph when it's 60mph over land??? Again I just don't think that is going to happen... With more time over the water, I feel strong that Fay will at least makes it to Hurricane strength! Most likely I'll be leaving tomorrow morning for the Savannah, GA area...
3 comments:
Funny how we differ in opinions here. I think the NHC might be either right on, or too far north! But I guess we will wait and see. It is impressive how the eye finally cleared out after it made landfall. Goes to show you how little Florida does to a tropical system. A high end Cat 1 or Cat 2 at landfall after a day or two over the Atlantic looks likely to me as well, I just think you will have to go a bit further south.
Just looked at the GEFS and SREFS. The GEFS support a more southern track back into the Gulf. The SREFS support something closer to what you are thinking. Tough call indeed. I am also a bit concerned, in regard to your chase, that it might not get far enough off the coast to develop strongly, but I guess you have to roll the dice.
It could go further south like you say... I definitely could see that... I'm just going to stick with the Savannah area for now... I see more of a gradual turn instead of a hard left hook... I'm glad though you agree with the strength though... Bottom line is the further up the coast it goes the stronger it will get... I mean look at this storm... Winds are now up to 65mph traveling over land... AMAZING!!! If I do end up being right with the Savannah area I think it easily will be a solid 2 if not a 3... What a crazy storm!!!
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