What is the NHC thinking???

I'm not trying to be rude or act like I know everything, but how in the world is that not at least a tropical depression??? As far as I'm concerned we have Tropical Storm Fay heading just north of Puerto Rico... Even if you don't agree with that, there is no way in heck that's not AT LEAST a depression... There have been reports east of the Virgin Islands of winds north at 63mph... That's only 11 mph away from a hurricane!!! I'm sure it's just a gust, but still, you got to be joking right? Oh well I'm sure it will be corrected by tonight... Well at least I hope it will...


With the track of eventual Hurricane Fay, I'm not buying into a hard right turn... Looking at teleconnections and just common sense weather patterns this time of year I definitely think it's heading towards Florida... Now this is not to say the trough won't have any affect on the hurricane but unfortunately I think it's going to be a bad one for the people of South Florida... I do think the trough will help pull Fay a little right but all that will do is keep it from ramming into all the islands... Without the trough, Fay would in my opinion slam into the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola likely mortally wounding if not destroying the system... These islands have helped save the US billions if not trillions of dollars over last few hundred years...

Now I will say that this has been a very unusual summer for the Deep South... I have seen front after front make it all the way down into the Gulf... This is extremely unusual for August in the Deep South and even some places in southern Alabama saw over 7 inches of rain last Tuesday.... This is almost unheard of for a non-tropical system this time of year... Even with that all being said I still don't think the trough will be able to pull Fay that hard right... Again referring to teleconnections and typical GFS bias, I fully expect the ridge to build back in by Sunday/Monday.... This will keep Fay from riding up the east coast and most likely will lead it directly into South Florida... If I lived between Key West and West Palm Beach I would be very worried about this system...



Even new 18z tracks have shifted everything west a little... Of course this is going to fluctuate some over the next few days but I think that shift west is on the right track... Typically the GFS has a horrible time with heat transfer with tropical systems... Time and time again it breaks down the ridge too quick and turns systems out to sea only to have them strike hundreds of miles west... Now I don't think it will be a horrible as it has in the past due to the unusual summer pattern, but again it will be wrong enough that if I lived in Florida I would be very worried... Also you have to keep in mind that this is a little different situation where you are waiting for the ridge to build in instead of moving out... Even with that being said if you have a major hurricane releasing tons of latent heat into the atmosphere, this will only help turn the storm more to the west as the ridge not only strengthens but builds back in faster than the GFS thinks... I think we will have a major hurricane striking southern Florida Monday night or early Tuesday morning... 

I know I'm going out of a limb with this early forecast but with past experiences and everything I have learned with the tropics, all my instincts are pointing towards a Florida strike... With some ocean water temperatures approaching 90 degrees in the Bahamas and mid to upper 80's standard all across the region, I think everyone needs to take this storm very seriously... There are plenty of other factors involved but things are looking very dangerous at this time especially as Fay moves away from the islands and the shear starts to relax... We could easily have a rapidly deepening hurricane heading towards the Miami Megalopolis Monday/Tuesday next week... Many more updates to follow...