Heavy Rain on the way!!!

Heavy rain associated with a strong cold front is rapidly approaching Starkville from the west...  Rain has now entered the state of Mississippi and if I had to guess I would say it will reach Starkville around 2 or 3am...  We will quickly get well over a 1/2 inch of rain and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few places get over an inch...  We sure will feel the effects of the cold front as it will be at least 15 degrees colder tomorrow...  Today was such a beautiful sunny day as we got up to 64 degrees...  I hope everyone enjoy it too because we won't see the mid-60's again for a long time!  Again tomorrow will struggle to get into the upper 40's plus the winds will be gusting strong out of the north...  With some gust over 25mph it's going to feel pretty darn cold!!!  Friday the winds will lighten up but we still won't get much higher than 50 degrees...  Tomorrow night we should get into the upper 20's but I think we will hit at least 25 at GTR on Friday night.  

I have notice following Kansas City in the national forecast contest that this air mass has been verifying much colder as it makes its way across the US...  If you want to check out a cool site to help you see if an airmass is colder or warmer than average than I would highly recommend checking out the 10 day ensemble mean put out by environment Canada.  The chart shows you in standard deviations if the air is above or below average.  So lets say you saw a number of -2.0...  That would represent 2 standard deviations below normal which is some cold air!!!  This is one good way to help you identify as a forecaster if the air source is originating warmer or colder than normal...  Of course you have understand which part of Canada the air is coming from...  Anyways I'll post a link if you want to check it out!

10 day ensemble mean

Cold and Cloudy...

Today was another cloudy day cold day here in Starkville as we only got up to 43 degrees...  Since I last talked to you on Thansgiving Day I have only seen the sun for maybe a hour or so on Sunday...  We had a decent amount of rain on Friday and Saturday morning with light rain and sprinkles continuing through Sunday...  Bottom line it has been cold, wet, and dark for about 4 days now...  I would say we only got maybe 1/2 to 3/4 of inch of rain but still it's been fairly dreary...  The good news is the clouds are starting to break up and finally it looks to be a sunny day tomorrow...  The temperatures will still be a little chilly as we should only hit the lower 50's but hey at least it will be sunny!!!  Wednesday looks great at we should get into the middle 60's...  By Wednesday night however the next batch of rain should move in as another cold front will move through Starkville, cooling things back down for Thursday...

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Today was a beautiful turkey day as our high reached 68 degrees...  Tonight doesn't look bad either as we should stay in the lower 50's...  There is a slight chance of some light rain tonight but it's pretty low...  The main rain should hold off until Friday afternoon...  I'm sorry I haven't posted the last two days but things are really busy for me right now....  I'm writing/creating the BMP/OMP distance learning severe weather class...  I'm having fun with it but it takes a lot of time and effort...  Because of that I might not be posting a lot over the next week or so....  I'll try my best but I just wanted to give a heads up...  Either way I just wanted to wish everyone a HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!   I hope its been a great one!!! 

Tropical Activity in Late November?

Believe it or not you can and do get tropical activity in late November... People forget that the season doesn't end until November 30th... Also you can get hurricanes in December... It's rare but it has happened a few times before... Don't quote me, but I'm pretty sure there have been 5 December hurricanes in the last 120 years... This latest activity coincides with another upswing in the MJO... Or in other words the upward motion that travels around the globe has entered the Atlantic again... Funny it always seems to lead to tropical activity... I have said this a few times this year and I know some research has been done on MJO pulses and tropical activity, but I really think it's almost unbelievable how well it works.... Especially this year!!! Here is the discussion out of the NHC in Miami, FL on the current low risk...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...  

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD...IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

$$  

FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

19 Degrees at GTR...

I don't know why this didn't post yesterday but it did hit 19 degrees at GTR the other night...  The temperatures were bouncing around in the lower 20's as the winds would go up to 5mph and then go back to calm...  Just before 5am the winds stayed clam for several hours and the temperature hit 19 degrees for two consecutive hours...  Definitely the coldest night of this fall season even though it could have been colder...   I really think if the winds would have stayed clam all night the low could have easily hit 14 or 15 degrees as the dewpoint got down to 12 degrees at one point...  Things have warmed up nicely since then as our high today got up to 55 degrees...  Late tonight we should see rain developing and continuing through Monday...  Some locations should see rainfall totals up to a 1/2 inch...  Hey I'll talk the rain over the bitter cold any day of the week...

Currently 30 Degrees!!!

Today was a cold day as the High only got up to 45 degrees at GTR...  Also the winds were steady out of North around 10mph with a gust of 18mph...  This only made it feel much worse!!!  Currently it is 30 degrees at GTR and the NWS is going with a low of 21 degrees...  It actually was 28 degrees a hour ago so I think the wind is the only thing keeping the temperatures from really dropping tonight...  The winds are still consistent out of the NE at 6mph...  If the winds don't go calm then I think we'll see a low around 22 or 23...  If the winds can go calm I think 19 degrees is very possible especially considering the dewpoint is down to 16 degrees...  So I do think the 21 degrees the NWS is going with should be fairly close...  Either way it's going to be a really cold night for us in Starkville...  Today's high was about 15 degrees below normal and the low will be near 20 degrees below normal...  BRRRR....

UCLA...

For those who don't really know me well I'm a HUGE UCLA basketball fan...  If you grew up in Los Angeles like me then the Lakers and UCLA are staples in your sports lives...  I just watched UCLA get beat by Michigan tonight...  No offense to Michigan, but if we're losing to them, we're in BIG TROUBLE this year...  I really think that if we make it to the sweet sixteen this year I would be surprised/happy...  It was hard to watch and is also very disappointing but I really can't complain because the future still looks very good for us...  We have the #1 rated recruiting class this year and next years class is starting to look really good also...  Plus we did make 3 straight final 4's...  Hey at least the Lakers are looking really good so far...

Sorry about the sports rant and the lack of weather tonight but I will say it's a cold windy night for us in Starkville, MS...  Currently the temperature is 39 degrees with north winds of 12mph gusting to 20mph...  The low should get into the upper 20's tonight with wind chills in the teens...  Tomorrow is also going to be cold with high in the mid 40's...  Plus with a north wind gusting up to 15-20 mph it's going to feel much colder...  Friday night is going to be down right cold with the low hitting 20 degrees if not even the upper teens at GTR...  I really wouldn't be surprised if few low temperature records are broken across the state...  This is way too cold for me, especially in November...  Remember our average high for late November in Starkville is around 60 degrees with a low near 39 degrees...  I'll post more on this cold shot tomorrow...

Storm Chaser Convention!!!

I sure would love to go to this conference one day!!!  They always have some of the best storm chasers and severe weather experts in the world...  Since it's in Denver, CO it has been tough to get there but I'm really thinking of going either this year or the next...  One of my good friends Jeff Haby lives near Denver so it would be cool to see him and go to the conference at the same time...  This year Dr. Steve Lyons is the key note speaker...  Also you have Dr. Greg Forbes, Dr. Howie Bluestein, Rich Thompson, Tim Marshall, and Jon Davies...  Again some of the best names in weather....  I'll post the link to their website for anyone that wants to check in out...  It basically has all the info you need if you want to go to the conference....  Also if you look in the bottom right hand corner of the website you will see a link that says "tornado forecasting"...  Its some forecasting tips from Dave Hoadley which is one of the pioneers of storm chasing for those that have never heard of him....  ENJOY!!!

Storm Chaser Convention

Already 30 Degrees!!!

Were already down to 30 degrees at GTR tonight and I think were going lower than 25 degrees tonight...  The NWS is going 26 degrees which I think is a little too high...  The dewpont is currently 21 degrees and with calm winds I wouldn't be surprised if we got to 23 degrees or so...  I will say it has been sitting at 30 for a couple of hours now which worries me a little...  Also it actually hit 28 degrees and then warmed back up to 30 degrees which is just weird to me...  The winds have at times been up to 5 mph so maybe that's the cause of the erratic temperatures...  I may be wrong but I think if the winds can stay clam we will be near 23 degrees tomorrow morning...  Way too cold for my liking!!!  Either way the hardest freeze of this fall season is already well on its way...

Cold...

Cold weather is on the way for us in Starkville...  Of course it's not cold for people from the north, but to me it's a little bit chilly for my liking...  A cold front has passed through the region and tomorrow looks to struggle to get to 50 degrees...  Lows should easily drop to 25 degrees as we will experience our hardest freeze of the season to this point...  Things will slowly warm up the rest of the week but tomorrow looks like a chilly one!  

On a quick side note I was off on low last night...  I really thought 32 was a lock and I also thought 29 or 30 was very possible...  The skies were clear and the winds were calm but the low only got down to 34 degrees...  I guess the air mass modified a little faster than I thought which makes sense with the high reaching 64 degrees today...  I also was off on that...  It just goes to show that even when things seem simple you can still be off...  That's the everyday challenge of forecasting!!!

Sorry about this being really short tonight but I have to finish a presentation on Storm Chasing...  For anyone that wants to come it will be tomorrow in Hilbun Hall room 340 at 12:30pm...  It should be a good time and I hope I can get people excited about the weather and storm chasing...  I'll be showing some cool pictures on Hurricane Ike and I'll also show some intense video on the Conway Springs wedge tornado...  Definitely the best tornado I have ever seen with my own eyes!

Areas of Frost Tonight...

With clear skies and calm winds I think frost is a good bet for Starkville, especially areas away from the city...  GTR should get to at least freezing if not even 29 or 30 degrees...  The official forecast from the NWS is 32 degrees, but if I was a betting man I would go with 29 degrees tonight...  Tomorrow it should warm up to near 60 degrees with it cooling back down on Tuesday to around 50 degrees for the high...  Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night of the weak with temperatures falling into the upper 20's...  I really wouldn't be surprised if GTR gets to near 25 degrees!!!  We will see as time will tell...

North Carolina Tornadoes...

Unfortunately early this morning a powerful supercell produced up to 7 tornadoes killing two in North Carolina...  It looks to me like the official total will be 3 confirmed tornadoes ranging from EF1 to EF3...  Sometimes on the SPC storm reports a tornado will be counted multiple times...  The supercell developed about 35 miles southeast of Raleigh, NC with the worst damage in Kenly, NC along the border of the Johnston/Wilson county lines...  With the tornadoes occurring between about 2:30am and 4:00am in the morning it's honestly amazing more people were not hurt or killed...  This is typical of many killer tornadoes in the south as they usually occur late at night when people are asleep...  So even with proper warning from the NWS you won't know it's coming unless a tornado siren is sounded...  

Unfortunately not everyone hears those sirens and really just goes to show how important weather radios are...  Most everyone has a smoke alarm yet many don't have a weather radio, even in the Deep South where nighttime tornadoes are common...  Hopefully you will never use your smoke alarm but I promise you that everyone would use their weather radio multiple times in a few years, especially in the Deep South!  If you don't have a weather radio I HIGHLY recommend getting one to protect you and you family!!!  Here is a couple of good news stories on today's tornadoes in North Carolina...  Also I have linked a couple sites talking about a very famous tornado outbreak that hammered North Carolina and South Carolina on March 28th 1984...  Sadly 57 people lost their lives that night!!!

10/15/08 North Carolina Tornadoes 1

10/15/08 North Carolina Tornadoes 2

3/28/84 Carolina's Tornado Outbreak 1

3/28/84 Carolina's Tornado Outbreak 2

The Great Plains...

Today I found myself sitting in my office thinking about this years storm chase in the Great Plains... Anybody that knows me understands that my true passion in life is storm chasing... My favorite is hurricanes but I still love tornadoes very much... The challenge of the chase is what really intrigues me the most... It's not like going after a hurricane where usually it's fairly hard to miss... With tornadoes you really need to be on your game with forecasting... Of courses there is luck involved but if you are a great forecaster it will especially show in the Great Plains...

Unfortunately a lot of people rely heavily on the SPC which is ok if that's the way you want to forecast/chase... The thing is the SPC is constantly changing their forecast, so if you're not one step ahead you will fail most of the time... Don't get me wrong, the SPC is great, but I have always believed that I would rather go down because I blew my own forecast then to rely on the SPC's forecast... Sometimes I have been burned bad by it but there have been plenty of times where it played off well...

This year I'm going to be heading Amarillo, TX to chase with my buddy Todd Beal... Many others from LDCT will be there as well like Justyn Jackson, Josh Johnson, and Chris Bell... Hopefully a few others will also be able to make it! It will be good to chase with some of my best friends again... I miss chasing where you go as hardcore as possible for a few days to come back and relax for a few days... No restrictions, deadlines, and schedules... Just all out chasing where you hold NOTHING back... I can't wait because it's been too long since I chased like that... It's time to go hardcore again like we did in 2004... I look forward to the challenge!!! LDCT4LIFE

Friday Rain...

Unfortunately it looks like a rainy Friday for us in Starkville, MS tomorrow...  The good news is the rain should hold off until around dark...  The heaviest rain should be between 0z and 6z tomorrow with the rain ending by dawn Saturday...  Starkville should see between a quarter and a half inch of rain, however northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and eastern Tennessee could see rain amounts over 3 inches...  After the cold front passes tomorrow night things are going to get cold for Saturday and Sunday...  For Saturday expect highs in the lower 50's and for Sunday expect highs in the mid 50's...  The lows on both Saturday and Sunday should be near freezing even though I think Sunday night has a much better chance to go freezing or below because of clear skies and calm winds...  If you're heading to Tuscaloosa for the game expect a dreary cold fall day...  Trust me the cloudy skies and gusty winds out of the NW will makes temperatures feel much colder than they actually are... 

Great Post!!!

I want everyone to check out a great severe weather post written by Jon Davies...  For those of you who haven't heard of Jon, he is not only a great storm chaser but also in my opinion one of the best severe weather researchers in the business...  Jon's research on low-level thermodynamics has become the wave of the future for tornado forecasting...  I know I use it all the time when I chase tornadoes...  On top of all of this Jon is a great person...  He has always been very nice to me and I feel very lucky to have seen my first tornado with him on May 12th 2004...  We saw two small tornadoes in Sawyer, KS and a beautiful tornado in Attica, KS which we got fairly close too...  Again I highly recommend everyone to read his post!  Also I highly recommend everyone to check out his website if you want to learn a lot about severe weather and tornado forecasting!!!

Jon Davies Website

Jon Davies Severe Weather Post

Fail Foliage...

I want everyone to check out some AWESOME Mississippi Fall Foliage pictures Justyn Jackson took at the Noxubee Wildlife Refuge yesterday...  For anybody that lives in Mississippi I highly recommend going to the Wildlife Refuge a few times a year...  It really is a cool place!!!

Justyn's Fall Foliage Pictures

6-Years Ago...

6 years ago today was the largest November outbreak in recorded US history...  I remember the day very well as the High Risk covered a HUGE area...  A lot people may not realize this but Alabama has more tornadoes in November than any other month of the year...  There is a Dixie Alley and the threat is very high for us in the Deep South during the late Fall...  If you would like to read more about Dixie Alley I HIGHLY recommend everyone to read a very interesting paper by Alan Gerard (NWS Jackson, MS)...  Here is the Powerpoint presentation...

Also here is something else I came across today...  A detailed account of the day by Justyn Jackson...  I hope he doesn't mind me posting this, but it's very well written and basically hits on all the main points of the day...  It was a big chase for LDCT, as we were basically sandwiched between 3 tornadoes that night including a F-3 that hit the University for Women in Columbus, MS...  Honestly we got lucky!  I have always said that chasing in the Great Plains is very easy compared to chasing in the Deep South...  Usually it's HP supercells at night in the pine woods...  It's a totally different ball game and if you're not experienced on how to chase in Deep South you can easily die...  I have grown up a lot as a storm chaser since that crazy night and I know today I wouldn't have done half the stuff we did that night...  You live and learn!!!

If November 9th was any indication of how November 10th would turn out, this day would be remembered for a long time. A supercell formed in eastern Arkansas late on Saturday night (11/9) and moved east-northeast into western Tennessee. It would produce multiple tornadoes including damage in Homholdt, TN to a nursing home. The storm system slammed the western United States a few days prior producing heavy rains and battering waves along the Pacific coast. The SPC outlooked much of the southeast in a slight risk of severe weather on the Day 2 Outlook. However, John and I anxiously awaited the new Day 1 Outlook which would tell us what to expect for our chase. Needless to say, we were in utter amazement as we stared at the screen. A HIGH risk had been posted for northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, middle Tennessee, and south-central Kentucky! High risks are very rare; only a couple of issued every year. This was the first high risk that I had seen in the southeast in about two years. I immediately began calling the team and getting everyone together for a chase. Chris and Greg were definitely committed; John was committed. The only problem was Todd. He was in Biloxi - almost five hours away. There was no way I could not let him know so I called him to explain the situation, and he told me he was getting waking up his mom and coming back to Starkville! I gave Josh and call and we analyzed everything and came to the conclusion that northwest Alabama would not be a bad spot. As I was going to bed around 2:00 a.m., Todd instant messaged me and said he was leaving and would call me about 7:00 a.m. when he got back to campus.

Just after 7:00, my alarm goes off and Todd gives me a ring. I check out the latest SPC outlook and they have shifted the high risk farther to the northwest; extreme northeast Mississippi was still under the gun. I checked out some more data and it was readily apparent that a high risk was warranted. Strong southerly winds in excess of 20 mph were streaming across much of Mississippi in the early morning hours. Dew points were well into the 60s and temperatures were climbing out of the 60s and into the 70s. I decided to step out on the balcony and I immediately noticed two things: sun and strong winds. I thought back to December 16, 2000 (F4 tornado in Tuscaloosa), and I thought to myself that it indeed felt eerily similar to that unfortunate day. While I ate breakfast, I also watched a piece of vinyl siding get torn from the apartment across the street from us due to the strong winds! After analyzing morning upper-air data, a low-level jet would be present (over 50 knots) when storms began erupting and we would be in the favored right-rear quadrant of a jet max that was zipping through Oklahoma. The only doubt was how much instability would be present for the storms? An axis of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE values was centered across much of central Mississippi and they were slowly moving north and east. After about 9:30 I decided to give Greg a call and explain what was going on. John and I looked at more mesoanalysis data and thought it still looked like an excellent chase day. I then gave Tim Wallace a call around 10:30 and we talked about the situation. He was torn whether to go chasing or run radar. However, he liked the idea of hanging around Starkville to see the storms develop. The 1630Z SPC outlook was a little late in getting out, but it shifted the high risk farther back to the southwest. Now, we were well in the risk area and Tim's forecast started sounding really good. I decided to call Josh and let him know that his viewing area in Meridian was in the high risk. We discussed the situation and still agreed that northwest Alabama looked like the favored area. Greg came over just after 11:00 and we decided to get some lunch at Taco Bell and head up to the lab. At lunch Todd, John, Greg, and I decided that Tupelo would be our destination point. We called Chris and told him we would meet him at his apartment in Columbus around noon. After lunch we went up to the lab and saw a few people up there checking everything out. After more discussing, Tim convinced us to stay around here and possibly head west in an hour or so. We then called Chris back and told him to meet us in the lab. For the next couple of hours, satellite images showed the cap was holding strong but instability was increasing over much of the state. CAPE values exceeded 1500 J/kg in east-central Mississippi and were approaching 2000 J/kg in the central part of the state. We put all of our minds together and came up with this: the dynamics would be much greater across northern Mississippi and the cap would break there first. With that said, the lab sent us to Batesville? so we packed everything up and headed west on Highway 82 just after 2:30 p.m.

We received a phone call from the other group saying that they were going to Pontotoc and that we should get north. We barely made the exit, but we thought this was a logical decision. We finally met each other in Pontotoc just after 4:30 at a McDonald's. The other group got a call from the lab saying the cap showed signs of breaking northwest Mississippi, but they were concerned with new storms developing in central Mississippi. We sat around for about 30 minutes discussing fantasy football, eating, and waiting for the cap to break in our area. Just after 5:00 p.m., we noticed towers going up to the south of us and lightning was evident in a couple of storms. The lab then called and told us to head south because storms were growing stronger. We then got on Highway 78 east and then took Alternate Highway 45 south back to Starkville. Driving back, lightning was becoming increasingly more intense in almost every quadrant. We heard of severe thunderstorm warnings for Oktibehha (Starkville) and Lowndes (Columbus) Counties. We decided to give Josh a call since the lab was not calling frequently enough. He told us storms were growing stronger just south of us and also northwest of us! He also said that it was going to be a long night for him with frequent cut-ins. Not long after this, we heard of a tornado warning for Lowndes County. Business was sure enough picking up in a hurry! Soon after that, tornado warnings were issued for Oktibehha and Winston Counties. We finally made it back to Highway 82 and headed west towards Starkville. While Starkville was still under a warning, we decided to park on the side of the road and get a good vantage point for spotting. It was impossible with torrential rain in the dark of night. I called Josh and asked for his opinion on where we should go; he recommended going down Alternate Highway 45 towards Macon. We then turned around and headed east on 82 towards the airport. When we got to the airport, we saw more rain, lightning, and even some small hail. However, the group called and told us we were under a tornado warning (Lowndes County again). We then headed south on Highway 45 to see if we could get a clear opening to see anything. Still we encountered very heavy rain, but there were occassional spurts of light rain. I called Josh back and he told us the storm was off to the west of us but showed indications of a hook. He told me a storm moving through Columbus showed very good signs of rotation. We later heard that Columbus was indeed hit by a tornado. Chris was concerned because his fiancee was close to the damage area, but he got in touch with her and she was fine. We kept driving up and down Highway 45 for some reason? We finally were told to keep going south towards Macon. Just before we got to Macon, we pulled off the road and watched a storm with a wall cloud. I did notice that it felt like we were feeling rear flank downdraft winds because they were warm and moist. We relayed our report to the lab and they told us to stay where we were. About this time, Robert noticed a power flash just to our north but we didn't really notice anything about this. The lights at a nightclub also flashed. The wall cloud we were watching soon dissipated and the outflow air became quite chilly. We later found out that the power flash may have been a tornado that stayed on the ground for 46 miles (rated only as an F1)! We somehow missed it by less than 2 miles. Josh told us more storms continued to build back to the southwest but nothing that looked overly impressive. We kept riding around aimlessly for some reason and listened to James Spann (ABC 33/40 Birmingham) on the radio do live coverage of the Carbon Hill, AL tornado. It sounded like the tornado caused massive damage in that area (that tornado was later rated at F3). With the storms dissipating, we decided to go to Columbus with Chris and see how bad the damage was. As we were going back to Columbus, we ran across a turned over truck and we decided to turn around and see if anyway was in it. Right as we got to the truck, police cars came up and and we saw the man who was in the truck. He was alright but shaken up. It appeared as though a tornado went across this area because a wide swath of debris was on the road along with many snapped trees. We later learned this was the tornado that struck Crawford and claimed the only fatality in Mississippi. When we got close to his apartment, we saw a neighborhood that looked like a tornado had gone through. Sure enough, trees were uprooted everywhere and on top of a few houses. I guessed if that was the only damage, the tornado would probably be rated as an F1; Mississippi University for Women a couple of miles away suffered the worst damage with numerous buildings damaged on campus. Chris and Greg had a Thermo exam the next day, but he had no power. However, Mike said there were no "ifs" "ands" or "buts" about it, they would have the test at 8:00 a.m. That sure was a nice gesture towards someone who didn't have power.

I will remember this outbreak for as long as I live. A high risk stretched from Ohio down to southern Mississippi! Over 80 tornadoes were reported and damage was the most severe in eastern Tennessee and north-central Alabama. The models did a decent job forecasting this event. The GFS was consistent run to run about 8-9 days out. However, it did back off the risk for a couple of runs about five days before the event and numerous meteorologists discounted the storm. Many thanks go to Josh Johnson for his help. This may have been one of my most frustrating chases, but we could have possibly been killed if not for his help.

Justyn Jackson
12/17/02

Quick Update on Hurricane Paloma...

Paloma made landfall on Santa Cruz Del Sur, Cuba as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph and a central pressure of 968mb...  Tragically this is the third major hurricane to strike the coast of Cuba this year...  The other two being Hurricane Gustav which hit western Cuba as a strong Cat-4 and Hurricane Ike which hit eastern Cuba as a weak Cat-4...  My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Cuba tonight!

Major Hurricane Paloma...

Hurricane Paloma is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph... The central pressure is down to 958mb with a movement towards the NE at 8mph... This is well over a 1mb per hour drop which is about what I expected.... It really is similar to Omar in the rapid deepening... Unfortunately for Cuba Paloma is heading straight towards the central part of the country... There is still a 12 hour or so window for strengthening, as Paloma could become a Category 4 hurricane... Thankfully it looks like wind shear will increase dramatically in about 12-24 hours to near 30 knots...

While Paloma will still be a powerful hurricane at landfall at least it looks like it will be weakening as it comes ashore... This will make a big difference when it comes to fulfilling the max wind potential for Cuba... As I have talked before in older tropical posts, a strengthening hurricane will verify much higher surface winds than a weakening hurricane... It has to do with updraft strength and the ability to mix the faster winds aloft to the surface... While this is good news for Cuba this is not to say that Paloma won't be a powerful and deadly hurricane... Even if it weakens to a Cat-2, Paloma will still cause big problems for Cuba... The good news is it could have been worse... If it would have been 24 hours faster you would be looking at a rapidly strengthening major hurricane at landfall... Landfall should be early Saturday morning...

Hurricane Paloma...

Unfortunately for Cuba another hurricane is heading their way...  Also unfortunately the GFDL and the HWRF both show Paloma becoming a major hurricane before landfall in central Cuba...  I hope Paloma doesn't get that strong but it honestly looks like it will...  Warm ocean waters and very little shear equals big problems for the country of Cuba...  This will be the third major hurricane to strike the country of Cube this year as I think it's very similar to Omar in the way it will rapidly deepen before landfall...  Also it's interesting that we got one more tropical cyclone out of a rising motion pulse of the MJO...  I really think more research should be done on the MJO because it's obviously a great indicator of possible tropical development...  Of course it's not a perfect indicator because many other things have to come together but I do find it amazing how the MJO seems to be a match for the gasoline when it comes to tropical development...

Current Observation for Hurricane Paloma:

17.5 N   81.8W

Movement towards the North at 8mph

Central Pressure of 987mb

Maximum sustained winds of 75mph

Tropical Depression 17...

Here is a great discussion out of the NHC in Miami, FL...  TD #17 will become Tropical Storm Paloma by tomorrow morning...

NHC Discussion

NHC Advisory

Barack Obama is President of the United States of America...

While I didn't vote for him this is still a historic night for our country!  It really is amazing to see how far our country has come, especially in the last 50 years...  I just hope and pray we UNITE as a country and work together to help the many problems we have...  Things are not good right now and if we're not careful they will get much worse before they get better...  This is the time for bipartisanship!  We need to move forward together as a country, remembering that the United States of America should always come first...  

Very Disappointed!!!

Sometimes I feel really stupid when it comes to weather and forecasting...  Lets take the forecast contest and Green Bay Wisconsin...  Originally I was thinking 74/54...  Then I went to the discussion and the temperature dropped from 54 to 48 in one hour...  I knew it was just a mesoscale effect from the lake breeze but for some stupid reason it scared me...  We forecast from 6z to 6z so again for some STUPID reason I thought the fog would hold on and keep the temperatures low...  The funny part is I even said in the discussion that the synoptic flow from warm air advection would take over quickly after the sun went down...  Oh well I'm just really frustrated with myself right now and I can't even tell you how dumb that was on my part...  I think the lesson learned is don't ever get scared, stick to your instincts, and most of the time don't be influenced by others...  That really was probably the dumbest things I have done in my 7 years of the contest and it looks like it will cost me 8 points!!!  I promise that will never happen again...  

Getting Better...

Sorry I haven't posted the last two days but I have been VERY sick...  Finally I'm starting to feel better and I'll have a detailed post out tomorrow...  The next 3 days looks near perfect with highs in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the mid to upper 40's...  Honestly I can't wait because to me that's about as perfect as you can get when it comes to the weather...  Thursday looks interesting as thunderstorms are on the way...  I don't know if we are looking at severe thunderstorms because the instability seems to be lacking with dewpoints struggling to get to 55-60 degrees F...  Also the best dynamics are well north of us in Starkville....  However it definitely needs to be watched as things can change quickly...  Either way it looks like rain/t'storms is on the way for Thursday...  I'll be back tomorrow!!! 

Sick..

Unfortunately I have got a lot worst and feel very sick tonight...  I don't have the flu but my head is killing me, sinuses are clogged,  and I have a bad sore throat...  It could be a lot worse but I do hope I get better soon...  I will say tomorrow and the rest of the weekend looks beautiful...  Tonight is the last night we should get into the 30's for awhile...  Here is the NWS numbers for Starkville, MS for the next 4 days...  It should be mostly sunny each of the next 4 days...

Friday:  72/40  

Saturday:  74/42

Sunday:  75/48

Monday:  74/52  

Getting Sick!!!

I'm not feeling very good at all right now so I'm going to keep this short...  I think the last two nights playing football in the cold has finally got me...  I sure hate being sick!!!

Last night we got down to 28 degrees at GTR and were below freezing for over 6 hours...  A fairly decent freeze for us in Starkville, but not anything really that unusual...  Were maybe about a week early or so...  The NWS has issued another freeze warning for us in Starkville between 3am and 8am...  GTR should get to near 30 degrees tonight which is basically what the NWS is going....  Today we got up to 63 degrees and tomorrow should be about 5 degrees warmer...  Halloween looks pretty good with high temperatures approaching 73 degrees...  The weekend also looks pretty darn good with highs in the lower to mid 70's and lows in the mid 40's...

Freeze Warning!!!

Almost every single Mississippi county expect for a few along the southern Mississippi coast is under a freeze warning tonight from 1am to 9am...  For Starkville the NWS is now going 28 degrees which I think is going to be close...  It may be a degree or so lower at GTR but again I think 28 is close...  Last night we got to 30 degrees at GTR and the high only got up to 54 degrees today...  Continually showing that this air mass is verifying colder than the models...  Tomorrow the NWS is going with a high of 64...  I think GTR will be closer to 62 but again I think it's going to be close...  Either way it's been a cold couple of days...  Originally being from Los Angeles, I not the biggest fan of cold weather...  Don't get be wrong, I LOVE the snow, but cold clear days/nights just isn't my thing...

On a quick side note our intramural championship game was tonight...  We just missed out scoring right before the half but I did hit Jared Allen with a 70 yard bomb to put us up 6-0 in the 4th quarter...  The Cow Bells went down the field and scored with a girl which is 9 points...  We drove down the field again but we just couldn't quite get there...  Unfortunately we lost 9-6 but I'm very proud of our team...  We played so hard and I know we pushed them harder than any other team in the last two years...  We just came up a little short!  By the way this was my last intramural game...  I'm 28 going on 29 and I feel like this was a good way to go out...  We really did have an amazing playoff run!!!  :-)  

Championship Bound!!!

We won our semifinal game tonight 9-0 so we have made it all the way to the Championship game!  I couldn't be happier for my team right now...  I scored on a pass from Emily Binger on our first drive and our defense won it from there...  It was especially sweet to beat the team that put us out last year...  Tomorrow night at 8pm is the MSU CO-REC intramural championship game...  We play a team named Cow Bells which is EXTREMELY good, but no matter what happens I'm very proud of our team!!!  If the New York Giants could beat New England in the Super Bowl last year, we sure the heck can beat the Cow Bells....

With the weather we actually only got up to 55 degrees today...  It felt like it too as the wind gusted to 24mph out of the NW today!!!  By far the coldest day since last March!  Tonight we should get to freezing, especially away from Starkville...  If the winds can stay light/calm I think 31 is very possible at GTR...  We will see some patchy frost early tomorrow morning across the county...  Considering the fact that the air mass again is verifying cold, I'm glad to see the NWS drop their high to 57 tomorrow...  I think 57 will be close even though I wouldn't be surprised to see it only hit 55 again tomorrow...  With the low tomorrow night I think upper 20's is very possible...  The NWS is going 31 but I think it will be a couple degrees cooler which will make a difference....  With Calm winds tomorrow night I really think 29 is near a lock at GTR...  This would lead to a decent freeze...  We will see though...  Either way it's going to be another cold game for us....  Kick off was 37 degrees tonight and I think it may be a degree or two cooler tomorrow...   

Cold Front on our Doorstep...

The winds have shifted to the NW in the last 30 minutes as a cold front is on our doorstep...  If you loop the radar/satellite you can see it entering Oktibbeha County...  We are going to see a VERY noticeable change in our weather especially over the next two days...  Tomorrow's high shouldn't even get to 60 as the NWS is going with 59 degrees...  I think that will be fairly close...  Not only will we see chilly temperatures but you will definitely notice the winds tomorrow...  They will be gusting out of the NW tomorrow as high as 25mph...  It will feel like the coldest day we have had since last March...  Tuesday winds will be similar with a high near 60, but winds should slacken out of the NW to only around 5-10mph...

The low on Monday night will get very close to freezing...  I'm sure we will see some patchy frost away from the city of Starkville...  I know most of you may laugh at me calling Starkville a city, but I promise you even in a city of 30,000 people there is a heat island effect...  I've actualy studied it myself when I was an undergrad...  I bet near GTR we'll see temps at 31/32 degrees tomorrow night which is usually a few degrees cooler than Starkville...  The only thing keeping it from going lower is the fact that the winds will be up...  Tuesday looks like a lock for a freeze in Starkivlle and Oktibbeha County...  Even the NWS has come down some and is calling for a low of 30 degrees Tuesday night...  If the wind can go calm we will see temps in the upper 20's which will lead to a fairly hard freeze...  I think frost will be common place all across the city/county as the growing season will officially come to an end...  This is right on schedule though as we usually see our first freeze towards the end of October...  We will warm up to the mid 60's on Wednesday and near 70 on Thursday but again the next two days is going to feel like the beginning of winter...  

On a side note GTR only got up to 75 degrees today...  Also the low got down to 39 degrees which goes to show you that the air mass was colder than models were picking up on...  It will be interesting to see if that trend continues with the next cold front...  Even a few degrees makes a big difference especially when you are taking about 32 degrees versus 29 degrees...

Chilly Night...

Last night the low got down to 41 degrees at GTR...  Honestly I was a little surprised it went below 42 because of the moisture in the ground...  It was still fairly close though...  Tonight will be a perfect night for radiational cooling...  Calm winds and clear skies should allow us to drop near 40 degrees tonight...  The official NWS forecast is for a low of 42 degrees but I feel with basically no moisture left from Thursday's night/Friday's morning rain event the low will at least hit 40 degrees...  If we got to 41 last night I really don't see any reason why we shouldn't get a few degrees cooler tonight...  

The NWS weather service is calling for a high tomorrow of 77 degrees...  I think that's going to be tough to get to because we will start out cooler than predicted...  I would say 75 is more likely...  Today we only got to 66/67 degrees due to the fact we started out about 3 degrees cooler than originally thought...  Plus the air mass in general is verifying a little colder...  Fall is definitely here as the rest of the week looks fairly chilly...  A cold front with basically no moisture will move across our region Sunday night...  This will keep highs in the lower 60's Monday and  Tuesday...  We will have to watch for our first freeze of the season on Tuesday night...  Even the NWS is going 31 for Tuesday night...  Regardless of the freeze, Fall as arrived for us in the Deep South!!!

Starkville, MS Weather..

Well it turned out that a 1/2 inch of rain verified very well for us in Starkville...  The top of Hilbun Hall on the campus of Mississippi State University got .45" for the event...  With the complex of thunderstorms to our south blocking our inflow you could tell that the NAM's QPF was overdone...  Also the radar trends seemed to also show this well...  It just goes to show you that living in a place and seeing trends over the years is very important in forecasting...  No skill just experience... 

Right now it is a little chilly outside with a temperature of 45 degrees...  The official NWS forecast is 44 tonight which would make you think it's way off since it's already 45 degrees...  It may get down to 42 or so but I doubt it will get much lower with all the moisture in the ground...  Because of the 1/2 inch of rain we had the soil moisture will keep our dewpoints up tonight...  Tomorrow we should get to near 70 which will feel great!  Perfect day to grill out and watch some college football...  With a sunny clear day tomorrow, most of the moisture from our rain event should evaporate...  Because of this tomorrow night I feel like the upper 30's is very possible...  The official NWS forecast is for 41 degrees but I feel like we will get to 39 or so...  We will see....

Canes Win Again!!!

We did have some off and on light rain throughout the night but overall it wasn't too bad...  Oh and by the way we won again 17-6...  We jumped out to a 17-0 lead scoring on a huge 4th down play just before half-time...  Thankfully we held on because we played a very good team tonight...  For the second straight year we made it to the final 4 of MSU CO-REC intramural football...  Ironically we actually play the same team that beat us last year in the final 4..  It's going to be tough but I feel like we can win...  We had a lead last year but they got us in the end...  We still haven't played our best game yet so hopefully we can put it all together Monday night!!!

With the rain the NAM was dead on with the complex of storms along the northern Gulf coast...  This complex of heavy rain and thunderstorms blocked the inflow for us in Starkville...  I have seen this countless times over the years so I felt like the NAM had a very plausible forecast...  Because the inflow was blocked we didn't even come close to the rainfall potential...  This complex is still currently blocking the inflow and is why we still haven't had heavy rain to this point...  Rain is still on the way and I still think we will see near a 1/2 inch here in Starkville...  The 0z NAM is still showing .75" - 1.00" for us...  However looking at the radar I don't know if we will see 1 inch totals for the event...  It would really have to fill in which I don't see with the complex still to the south and east...  I'm sure there will be locally higher amounts but I think 0.5" is much more likely for us in Starkville...

Rain on the way...

Tomorrow a nice cold front will be approaching from the west...  Rain is a 100% chance but the main question is when does it arrive in Starkville?  It looks to me like the heaviest rain will arrive Thursday night and last until Friday morning...  There are two things that stand out to me about the rainfall totals...  First the NAM is really hinting at a complex of storm south along the gulf coast...  If this does happen then inflow will be cut off and it will be tough for us to maximize our rainfall potential...  Second both the GFS and the NAM show the heaviest rainfall north of the highway 82 corridor...  The last few runs have been showing this so I don't really have a reason to go against it...  For us in Starkville I think were looking at .50" to 1.00" totals...  Much heavier rain with totals over 1.5" - 2" should be common in northern Mississippi...  I just hope the heaviest rain can hold off until after our playoff intramural football game...  It starts at 8pm so it's going to be close call...  I'm sure we will have off and on light rain after dark but hopefully the heavy rain does hold off until later in the night...  It looks like it will but you never know...  Like usual a few hours makes all the difference and I just hope our game doesn't get cancelled...  I'll I can do is keep my fingers crossed!!!

Off by two hours...

Well it turned out I was wrong by two hours but unfortunately it makes all the difference...  Just as the sun came up the clouds rolled in and the temperatures stopped going up...  It hit 47 right before dawn and I thought we had a decent chance for 55...  The problem was there was a smaller shortwave ahead of the main trough axis...  This extra uplift caused the clouds and is the reason why we never got to the mid-50's...  The high was actually at midnight when we hit 50 degrees...  None of the models picked up on this lead shortwave until it was way too late...  I truly believe if we had two more hours of sunshine we would have easily hit 54 or 55, but it didn't happen...  And there again is the luck of this contest...  I still feel like I had the right idea, but the luck wasn't on my side this time...  Oh well it happens...  I went 38 for tomorrow which is way lower than national consensus...  Hopefully this time I'll have the luck on my side!!!

Tough Forecast...

Tomorrow is a make it or break it type day for myself and the team in the National Forecast Contest...  We are forecasting for Casper Wyoming  which is not the easiest task...  To make things even tougher we have a cold front approaching...  The question tomorrow is with the timing of that front and the effect on the high tomorrow...  I personally went 55 for tomorrow, where national consensus is 47...  That is a HUGE difference and will mean everything when it comes to the final results of this city...  I believe the front will lag back some allowing for decent heating until the clouds stream in later in the afternoon...  I honestly wanted to go higher than 55 but this is where the game comes in with this contest...  Say I go 60 and it's 54 degrees...  Even though I had the right idea, I wouldn't pick up any points on any forecasters unless they went below 48 degrees...  So even though I think 57 or 58 is VERY possible I went 55 to guarantee myself to pick up points on everyone else...  Of course this means it has to get to 55 which is not a done deal but I feel better sitting at that position then 58 or so...  

That is where the game comes in and is not true forecasting at all...  Personally I think the contest is more of a fun learning experience than a true test of someone's forecasting abilities...  It takes WAY more skill to forecast 7-10 days out then it does to nail a forecast at an ASOS station...  That's basically a lot of luck...  Even though I have done very well over the years and I would LOVE to see the team win, I fully understand it's about 50% luck...  Unfortunately the other 50% skill is more about playing the game then nailing the forecast...  You can't get too greedy in this contest, because if you do you will get burned!!!  Don't get me wrong you have to have a decent amount of forecasting skill but I've seen luck win many times over the years...  Last year our team basically lost by 30 minutes as a squall line approached Memphis, TN...  So bottom line, I hope MSU and myself get lucky tomorrow!  Time will tell but I feel good about it!  Knock on wood of course...   

Don't Forget!!!

I just want to remind everyone that a new season of Storm Chasers premiers in about 5 minutes on the Discovery channel...  I'll comment about it some after I watch it...  I'm sure it will be decent and it will also be very interesting to see how the addition of Reed Timmer changes things...  Cool guy but wow sometimes he really pushes the limits...  Like I have always said, I wish him the best and I pray he doesn't kill himself one day!!!

Update:  The show is pretty good and I think everyone got a little taste of how hardcore Reed is...  I don't know if I would be laughing if my windshield was breaking, but hey if he has the money then by all means laugh away...  So far it has been pretty tame chasing but I'm sure it will pick up big time as the season goes on...  I know a lot of people give Reed a tough time for chasing the way he does but I say its his life and  it's up to him...  I'm not going to criticize ANYONE for going as hardcore as he does...  Personally I'm a little more careful now in my older age but I understand where he is coming from...  Sometimes I do worry for his safety but I know if he died one day he would die doing what he loves...  How can you hate anyone for that? Lets just hope that doesn't happen to Reed, LDCT, MSU, or any other storm chaser/team!!!

Currently 52 degrees!!!

Today was the perfect day to watch football and grill out...  The high at KGTR was 72 degrees which felt absolutely amazing!!!  Currently it's 52 degrees outside and the low is supposed to get down to 42 degrees...  A little colder than I would like but hey I'm looking forward to it...  You would think that since I grew up in Los Angeles that I would prefer warm weather...  I'm not saying I like bitter cold weather but I do enjoy having seasons...  That was one reason I really liked living in Arlington, VA...  Plus I really do love snow, which unfortunately I have only seen once living in Mississippi...  I mean I have see flurries here and there, but only one significant snow in the 9 years of living here in Starkville...  The Superstorm of 1993 did get me into meteorology...  The pressure dropped to 28.54" at my house, which is something I'll never forget!  Anyways this weather should continue for the next few days until our next shot of rain by Thursday/Friday...  Hopefully it won't ruin our next intramural playoff football game Thursday night...  

Awesome Weather!!!

It's currently 52 degrees and feels absolutely perfect outside...  This is my favorite time of year when it comes to weather...  It's not cold but yet you still have a nice chill in the air...  You can open up your window at night and truly enjoy the fresh crisp air...  I really do love the fall!!!  Tomorrow the high will be near 70 with a low tomorrow night in the lower 40's...  That's a little chilly but I'm looking forward to it...  The rest of the week looks great also with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 40's...  Hopefully this trend will continue for awhile because I wish this weather would continue all year long...  I know it won't but I'm going to enjoy it as long as possible...   :-)

Canes Win!!!

Our intramural team the "Canes" won a huge playoff game tonight...  We were down 15-0 in the 4th quarter and came back to win 25-21...  We scored 15 points in the final 3 minutes including a 75 yard touchdown drive in the last 1:30...  I couldn't be prouder of our team and I have to say it was our best win in the 2 years we have played together...  It really was an amazing come back!  I won't be posting anything about the weather tonight because were going to go out and celebrate!  I will say that Omar sure did weaken fast...  I know it's still technically a tropical storm but the trough basically "ate" Omar which looks extratropical at this point...  At its peak Omar had sustained winds of 125mph with a central pressure of 959mb...  

OMAR NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE!!!

Omar is now a POWERFUL major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115mph...  The central pressure is down to 967mb which means Omar has dropped 34mb in 48 hours...  Not only are the pressure fails impressive but the shear fact that Omar went from a depression to a major hurricane in 48 hours is extremely impressive...  Especially when you consider the fact that NO ONE really saw this coming...  I will say the 18z GFDL nailed it yesterday...  Which is also impressive even for a high resolution triply nested grid point model...  Like I said yesterday the trend is your friend in forecasting and with something as uncertain as topical cyclone intensity forecasting, I'll always go with the trend at your hands...  You could see Omar continuously explode and look better and better with each progressive hour...  That's why I thought the 18z GFDL would be correct...  Not any hardcore science just experience and intuition with the trend in front of you! 

The explosion in intensity with Omar is directly related to the more eastern movement of Omar...  Because of the unforeseen strength of this storm two days ago it's being influenced much more by the upper level steering flow which is going to end up saving Puerto Rice from the worst of Omar...  Unfortunately for the Virgin Islands, Omar is only about 30 miles away from impact...  With the movement now NE at 20mph the eye of major hurricane Omar is very close to the island of St. Croix...  Conditions have already gone downhill fast and I expect the worst to be near the US Virgin Islands in about an hour or so...  I have to admit that the storm chasing side of me would love to be in St. Croix right now...  I know that may sound crazy but it's the honest truth...  My passion for hurricanes is the driving force behind my love for weather...  There is nothing like being in the eye of a hurricane to me....  NOTHING, Period end of story....  My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in Puerto Rico, the Northern Leeward Islands, and especially St. Croix which will just miss a direct hit to their south!  I NEVER want to see anyone get hurt my these magnificence storms!  The powerful is unmatched but unfortunately what they do to humans is horrible sometimes...

Omar Explodes into a Hurricane...

When I was talking to you last night tropical depression 15 was looking to become tropical storm Omar...  Well SURPRISE, Omar is now a Hurricane...  Hurricane Omar is undergoing rapid deepening with the central pressure now down to 979mb...  Last night at 10pm CT Omar was at 1001mb which means it has dropped 22mb in 24 hours...  This is pretty darn impressive for a developing tropical cyclone!!!  The movement is towards the NE at 6mph, and this general direction will continue...  However the forward speed of Omar will increase as it begins to feel a trough of low pressure to its north....  It now looks like Omar will strike near the US Virgin Islands late Wednesday night as the trough pulls Omar more east than originally thought! Personally I feel this is directly related to Omar exploding like it did, which is allowing the upper level winds to influence(steer) it much more than if it was a weaker tropical storm...

I have learned in forecasting that the trend is your friend so I have no reason to argue Omar becoming a major hurricane before landfall in the US Virgin Islands...  The 18z GFDL is showing this and I really have no reason to go against it!  Puerto Rice does look to miss the worst of it as Omar will most likely miss them to the east...  I don't think anyone saw this coming yesterday, which just proves to you how little we know about forecasting tropical intensity...  I felt good that it would eventually become a hurricane, but there is no way in you know what that I thought Omar would go from a depression to a hurricane in 24 hours...  Now there is a real chance the islands get hit by a major hurricane!  CRAZY!!!  

Nana weakening fast!!!

Nana has already weakened to a depression and is expected to weaken further into a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours...  Like I said yesterday Nana is NOT a threat unless you are a fish...  98L is now tropical depression 15...  It should become tropical storm Omar sometime tomorrow...  From there it should hit Puerto Rice as a solid tropical storm Wednesday night...  After that it will continue to move northeast out to sea...  Omar will likely become a hurricane once back in the open ocean waters but it's not a threat to anyone including Bermuda...  Everything is basically status quo from yesterday!  Hopefully there will be something more exciting to talk about soon...  We are forecasting for Casper Wyoming right now which is extremely difficult to say the least!  It's only day-1 and things aren't too bad right now, but I'm sure things will get VERY tough soon!!!  

Nana is NOT a threat!!!

Tropical storm Nana is getting sheared to pieces!!!  The western half of the storm is exposed as the strong upper level westerlies are killing the storm...  Even the NHC expects Nana to be a remnant low in 48 hours, if not sooner...  Even if the shear relaxes in the long term and Nana redevelops I'm pretty much a 100% sure now that it will head out to sea...  I thought it had a good chance of slipping under the weakness in the Atlantic but it obviously developed to quick...  9 out of 10 times if a system is named before 40 W it will feel the weakness and head out to sea...  Nana is not a threat to the US which is great news!

98L in the Caribbean also doesn't look like a threat to the US...  All the global models show 98L heading out to sea...  Also the HWRF and the GFDL show what will become Omar heading out to sea as well...  Both the HWRF and the GFDL do have Omar hitting near Puerto Rico as a tropical storm...  After hitting Puerto Rice Nana should get picked up by a trough which will cause it to accelerate to the northeast...  It probably will become a hurricane briefly, but even Bermuda is safe as Omar looks to head way east of there...  Again this is good news!

Storm Chasing Websites...

I'm in a wait and see mode with the tropics right now...  I'm having serious doubts that any of the two threats out in the Atlantic will theatening the US...  Only time will tell but the models sure aren't showing it!  Once I know more I'll post in more detail but right now there is really no point...  Again it's not looking likely right now which is GOOD news!  Since I don't have much to say about the tropics...  I'll leave you with some cool storm chasing/chaser sites...  Enjoy!!! 

Storm Track

Weather Matrix

Chuck Doswell

Jim Leonard

Jon Davies

Jim Reed

Really quick on the Tropics...

I'm not feeling the best right now so I'm going to keep this quick...  I'll try to update in more detail later tonight/tomorrow...  As I did say last night area number 1 is the main threat to the US...  Area number 2 "may" develop but even if that happens it's not a threat to the US...  With this up-phase of the MJO I think we can get 3 named storms in the next two weeks...  The question is does any hit the US?  After this last upswing of the MJO in the Caribbean/Atlantic I feel good in saying that the tropical season is basically over for us in the US...  

Really quick on the medium area of concern(#1) in the atlantic...  First we have to get development and then it's a race between a trough in the eastern US next week and the possible development of Nana...  If we can get a trough to dig into the Gulf later next week then I feel good in saying that Nana should get pulled north towards the US...  If the trough lags back or doesn't dig as far south then Nana will push west into the Yucatan...  The teleconection for Japan correlates to a decent trough in the eastern US late next week but I wonder if it will dig south enough?  It's going to be really close!  First we have to get development though as the European has backed off completely today...  I still think Nana will eventually development but until that happens it's going to be tough at best to guess on strength and movement...  I will say my general ideas from yesterday should be fairly close "IF" Nana does develop...  Time will tell though!!!

Tropical development on the way???

Both of these areas need to be watched especially in my opinion area number 2...  We are now entering another up-phase of the MJO(rising motion) so it's no surprise that things are getting more active...  Remember MJO rising motions travels across the globe and enhance conditions for possible development of tropical cyclones...  The Canadian shows both of these areas developing while the Euro shows area number 2 developing into a powerful hurricane striking the Yucatan peninsula late next week...  I will say that if you look at Japan right now there is a nice trough digging through the country...  Using the teleconnection we should have a deep trough in the SE US about 8-9 days from now...  This lines up well with the movement of our possible hurricane...  The question is does this trough dig south enough to pick up what will be Hurricane Nana???  Personally I think it will pick up Nana especially considering the fact that it's October and troughs tend to dig in much further south than earlier in the hurricane season...  Why, because the subtropical ridge is beginning to break down!  I'm going to post a detail tropical discussion on this very issue tomorrow...  I will say that if Nana does get pulled north I think it will be hard pressed to reach major hurricane strength at landfall...  It will have to travel over a lot of land and also ocean water temperatures have dropped a lot in the last month...  More to come tomorrow! 

Tornado in Enterprise Alabama Again!!!

Unfortunately there was a tornado today in Enterprise, AL...  For those of you that may have forgot, Enterprise was hit by a EF4 tornado back on March 1st 2007 where tragically 8 students were killed and at least 50 were injured inside the Enterprise High School...  The students took cover in the proper place as unluckily strong cement walls came down...  The high school was basically destroyed!!!  It was a very very sad story!  Thankfully I don't think anyone was hurt today as what looks like an EF1 "maybe" an EF2 tornado hit the Civic Center...  The roof ripped off the civic center, many cars in the parking lot were damaged as windows blew out, and there was also a lot of trees down...  The tornado occurred around 11:50am CT and was very well warned by the NWS...  Here is the preliminary local storm report out of the Tallahassee NWS office...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

.TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON

.DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1257 PM TORNADO ENTERPRISE 31.31N 85.85W
10/08/2008 COFFEE AL NWS EMPLOYEE

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO CIVIC CENTER…ROOF PEELED OFF AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT. CAR WINDOWS BLOWN OUT TOO. SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND A LOT OF DEBRIS.

March 1-2 2007 Tornado Outbreak (Enterprise F-4)

*Hilbun Hall on the campus of Mississippi State University received 1.35" for the event total...

More Rain To Come...

As of 10pm Hilbun Hall located on the Campus of Mississippi State University recorded .83" of rain...  The funny part is we have missed most of the big rains where some places across the Deep South, especially along the Gulf coast states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have seen over 10" of rain...  Of course that is not the norm across the south but still just to say anyplace received near a foot of rain today is very impressive...  As for us in Starkville we will continue to see off and on rain throughout tonight and tomorrow morning, so I feel strong in saying we should easily cross the 1" mark by the end of the event!  

On a side note tomorrow is a very tough day in the National Forecast Contest...  We are currently forecasting for the Jacksonville International Airport in Florida...  As I have said before we forecast 8 days for each city...  Until this point KJAX has been fairly straight forward which means it will come down to the next two days forecasting rain...  The frustrating part of this contest is the fact you are forecasting for a bucket in one specific location...  So unfortunately this is where LUCK comes in big time!  You could only be off by a few miles but yet be off by an inch of more...  This is especially true in coastal cities where convective events are near impossible to accurately forecast yet alone "guess" the exact amount of rain that will fall in your bucket!  I remember a couple years ago in Orlando when 3 or 4 miles was the difference between almost no rain and an inch of rain...  Anyways I hope we get LUCKY as a team because the next two days are huge!  I honestly think the contest is at least 40% luck!  But hey that's the nature of the beast...

Rain is on the way!!!

I have been talking about a decent rain event for Starkville, MS and the rest of the south for the last few days...  Well it looks like everything has come together for the rain to start around midday Tuesday and last into Wednesday night/Thursday morning...  The recent 0z NAM QPF is showing between 1.25" and 1.50".  I have been saying I think 1 inch is basically a lock for the Starville, MS region...  Of course you never know for sure in weather but I think enough strong dynamics are coming together for a good fall rain event...  We have a deep trough fighting against a strong subtropical high which will slow down the system and allow a more prolonged period of rain...  We have a nice vort max with good PVA in the region for over 24 hours...  There is some warm air advection which shows us PVA is the main driving force for our UVV's...  We also have a strong LLJ of 40 knots at times coming out of the warm moist Gulf of Mexico...  When you put this all together you get a nice rain event for us in Starkville...   Again I look forward to it!  There is nothing better then getting a good nights sleep when it's raining hard...  Of course it's really tough to wake up on those type of days!  :-)